해당 글의 목차
The Basics of Basketball Over/Under
Basketball is a high-scoring sport, one of the most common among ball games. Therefore, the over/under thresholds are much higher than in other sports, and the thresholds vary significantly across leagues.
In some ways, basketball is the easiest sport to hit with over/under bets.
Basketball Under/Over Rules
The rules for basketball over/under betting are quite simple. Like other sports, if the score exceeds a set threshold, it’s over; if it’s below the threshold, it’s under; and if it hits exactly the threshold, it’s a hit.
However, if it goes into overtime, there will be differences depending on the provider, but the current trend is to handle the result of over/under including overtime.
In other words, if a basketball game goes into overtime, the over bet has a higher chance of winning.
Basketball Under/Over Benchmark Selection Method
There are three main methods for selecting basketball over/unders.
- League scoring average
- Team’s offensive tempo
- Whether the scorer is on or off the field
Basketball Over/Under Benchmarks Based on League Differences
NBA (American Basketball)
First of all, the benchmark varies greatly depending on the league’s average score. However, the NBA has a much higher benchmark than other leagues because it features many high-scoring games and a quick-offense trend that does not use up the entire shot clock .
Just looking at the Oklahoma Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs game above, we can see that the benchmark is 237.5 points. Furthermore, the result was a combined score of 250 points, significantly exceeding the benchmark, indicating an over.
KBL (Korean Basketball League)
The Korean Basketball League (KBL) has a much lower over/under threshold than the NBA. First, unlike the NBA, which has four 12-minute quarters, each quarter lasts only 10 minutes. Furthermore, the field goal percentage and offensive tempo are significantly lower and slower than in the NBA, making the threshold inherently lower.
Looking at the Anyang Jeonggwanjang and Changwon LG games above, you can see that the benchmark score is 164.5 points, but the game scored a total of 161 points, so it is under.
With scoring stagnant, the KBL reduced the shot clock from 24 seconds to 14 seconds in certain situations in 2018 to encourage more excitement and scoring. [Related article link]
WKBL (Korean Women’s Basketball League)
The Korean Women’s Basketball League (WKBL) is notorious for its low bar . The example above is the lowest-scoring game in basketball history, with a 78-point score against a 132.5-point over/under bar.
The game was an absurd one, with Shinhan Bank winning despite having a 0% three-point shooting percentage, missing all 14 of their three-point attempts.
The tempo is slow, the field goal percentage is low, and it is difficult to expect high-scoring games due to the nature of women’s basketball, so it is the league with the lowest benchmark among basketball under/over benchmarks.
Under/Over benchmark based on attack tempo difference
In basketball, even though leagues differ in skill level, the benchmarks vary widely within each league. In matches between teams that prioritize attacking and those that play fast and decisively, regardless of the shot clock, the benchmarks can differ by as much as 30 points.
Especially in the NBA, teams have more distinct colors, and teams with many scorers tend to make quick shots whenever they get a chance, thus increasing the tempo of the game.
For example, looking at the games above, the Orlando Magic and New York Knicks were teams that played a very attack-oriented game this season, and were given a baseline score of 220 points, but they only scored 192 points, which is far below the baseline.
Conversely, the Detroit Pistons vs. Washington Wizards game was given a baseline of 239.5 points because it was a matchup between two teams with a very fast offensive tempo, but it was over with 246 points.
Just by looking at this, you can see that the benchmark is set based on the teams’ tempo, and it is very reckless to bet on under simply because the benchmark is low, or over simply because the benchmark is high.
Over/Under benchmarks based on whether the scorer is on or off the field
Although basketball is a team sport, individual skills play a significant role, so whether the team’s main scorer is on or off the field has a significant impact on the benchmark.
Taking the NBA’s representative scorer, Stephen Curry, as an example, we can see that the Golden State Warriors’ standard score is usually measured at around 234.5.
Despite their opponent being the defensive team Denver Nuggets, they were given a fairly high standard, but as if to mock them, they scored a combined 257 points, recording an over.
However, in the game against the Portland Trail Blazers, where Stephen Curry was out with an injury, he received a baseline score of 225.5, which was about 10 points lower than the baseline.
But even with this low benchmark, Goals, without a main scorer, failed to record an over, falling short by more than nine points to 216.
Therefore, in the above case, we can see that the over/under reference point changes depending on whether the main scorer is on or off.
Basketball Live Under/Over
In the case of basketball over/under betting, there is also live betting, but this reference point fluctuates greatly, so there are many things to keep in mind when betting.
The women’s basketball match between Belgium and Germany, an Olympic basketball match, is currently underway with the existing over/under benchmark of 156.5.
This game didn’t score much compared to the 1st and 2nd quarter benchmarks, so the real-time over/under benchmark dropped significantly.
Currently, one bookmaker offers a live benchmark of 141.5 points, showing an under/over benchmark that is 15 points lower than the original benchmark.
As mentioned above, if you want to approach over/under betting in real time, it is very different from the existing standard, and if you do not watch the actual game, it is nothing more than a simple guessing bet, so you need to watch the game carefully and predict the outcome.
How to Analyze Basketball Under/Over Betting
There are quite a few points to analyze when betting on basketball over/under, so let’s take a look at some of the most common ones.
Analysis of the team’s recent scoring pace
In basketball, a sport driven by flow, it’s more advantageous to focus on recent game scoring than the season’s combined average. The aforementioned teams’ offensive tempo can also vary from the beginning to the end of the season, and their scoring power can vary significantly. Therefore, analyzing the scoring pace of recent games is crucial.
In fact, the Miami Heat of the 2023-2024 season chose to play with a fast attack as their main tempo at the beginning of the season, but changed their strategy in January and changed their main weapons to quick shots and deep threes that do not take into account the backcourt and shot clock after a fast attack, thereby increasing the probability of over and also increasing their winning percentage.
Over/Under analysis focusing on high-powered teams
Basketball is one of those sports where the difference in strength is clearly evident. Therefore, the distinction between strong and weak teams is clear, but the flow of the game usually follows the game plan prepared by the strong team.
In the example above, there was a match between the Toronto Raptors and the Philadelphia 76ers, and the stronger team was Philadelphia, which had a 9.5 handicap.
At the time, Philadelphia favored a fast-paced offense, while the home team, the Toronto Raptors, pursued a swamp style of basketball that sought to stifle the opponent’s offense as much as possible and force the shot clock to run out.
But this game in Toronto brought back Tyson’s famous quote.
As Philadelphia dominated the game with a fast-paced fast break, breaking through Toronto’s swampy defense, the Raptors, the weaker team, had no choice but to play at a fast pace as well.
Accordingly, the game was set at 216.5 points, but it ended up scoring 255 points without going into overtime, showing a result that was nearly 40 points different from the standard.
Teams that rely heavily on players are difficult to analyze.
Basketball is a team sport, so it’s ideal for all players to be equally skilled. However, for teams that rely heavily on their ace players, the outcome of the game is often determined by the condition of a single player, making it difficult to predict over/under results.
A prime example is Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum. Tatum played evenly with Brown late in the season, but in the early and mid-season, he was the ace, handling all the balls.
However, Tatum is also human, so there were bound to be some sluggish performances. In these cases, the team became overly reliant on prepared play, which inevitably had a negative impact on the outcome.
In the end, the team not only recorded an under score of 234.5 points and scored 224 points, but also lost.
A similar phenomenon is occurring across all KBL teams, and given the league’s nature, the team relies heavily on foreign players. Therefore, it’s safe to say that the outcome of a game is determined by the condition of these foreign players.
Even in a match between the first and last place teams, if a foreign player from the first place team is absent, there are cases where the last place team’s odds are paid out as regular odds.
Therefore, it is really difficult to predict the over/under in KBL.
Basketball National Team Match Over/Under Analysis
International competitions, such as the Olympics and the Basketball World Cup, are not league games, and are extremely difficult to predict. Indeed, many basketball games at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics are showing significant deviations from the benchmark.
This is because, unlike league matches where there are professional benchmarks, national competitions not only lack information about the players, but also often lack the players’ synergy, making it difficult to predict the flow of the game.
Therefore, it is right not to bet on matchups between national teams because it is similar to a hit bet and it is very difficult (in fact, impossible) to analyze the under/over .
Real-time basketball under/over analysis
Basketball is a sport with so many variables that live betting can be advantageous for over/under betting. Watching the game while betting allows you to quickly grasp the dynamics of the game.
Let’s say you bet on the LA Lakers over before the game starts, but what happens if their main scorer, LeBron James, gets injured and leaves the court?
Naturally, the probability of an under result is very high, and if you understand this before the odds change, you can make a very advantageous over/under bet.
Of course, even if there are no extreme variables such as injuries, you can identify players who are in good condition each day by watching the game, and this can be applied to your advantage not only in over/under betting but also in handicap betting.
The amount of information that can be gathered is enormous, such as a team that was pursuing a goal suddenly deploying a different strategy that day, or a team that was pursuing a goal but had an extremely good pitching percentage that day.
Therefore, in real-time betting, over/under analysis can be more accurate than data.
The saying goes that seeing is believing, so watching the first and second quarters of a game for 30 minutes may be more probable than analyzing statistical data for 10 hours.
Basketball Under/Over Analysis by Quarter
If you can bet on quarters, this is also a good way to analyze.
How to Analyze Under/Over in the First Quarter
In the first quarter, it’s common for the starting lineup to feature a high-scoring game. Of course, bookmakers understand this and set a high bar, but if both teams are strong scorers, an over bet can be advantageous.
First of all, since it is the first quarter when the game begins, the starting players are 100% physically charged and although it may vary depending on the condition, it is the quarter when the skills are at their highest, so the possibility of scoring a lot of points is the highest.
In fact, the 2018-2019 Golden State Warriors, who boasted the best firepower, scored 51 points in the first quarter alone, setting a new record for most points scored in a quarter.
How to Analyze the 2nd Quarter Under/Over
The second quarter should focus on the first quarter’s performance. If the score gap widens to double digits in the first quarter, the team will likely rest its starting players in the early to mid-second quarter, relying on the bench, including the sixth man.
Looking at the above game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Toronto Raptors, New Orleans was ahead by a large margin with a score of [42:28] in the first quarter, and in fact, in the game above, New Orleans played a passive game from the beginning of the second quarter by calling in their essential players, Zion and Ingram, to the bench.
At this time, New Orleans’ position is that they want to avoid playing during the time when the starting players are resting, and the game tempo is bound to slow down.
As a result, a game that had a total of 70 points in the first quarter ended with 43 points in the second quarter, recording an under score.
What we can see from this is that when the score difference from the first quarter is large (especially when the strong team is leading against the weak team), the second quarter is expected to be a low-scoring quarter.
How to Analyze 3rd Quarter Under/Over
In my opinion, the most unpredictable part of a basketball game is the third quarter. The third quarter begins with a long break after the first half, during which players who were on fire can lose their shooting touch, and players who were struggling before can explode. This makes it incredibly difficult to predict.
Also, it’s hard to predict unless you’re the coach, as they often give starters extra rest to start the third quarter.
Even in tight games with a single-digit score difference, there are cases where the team puts everything on the line in the second half of the third quarter and the fourth quarter, giving the starting players more rest, and there are also cases where the team starts with the starting members from the beginning to secure the game even when the score difference is tens of points.
Therefore, in the case of the 3rd quarter, rather than betting before the quarter starts, it is better to watch the flow of the 3rd quarter and then bet based on the timeout in the middle.
How to Analyze 4th Quarter Under/Over
The fourth quarter, the end of a regular basketball game, is relatively easy to analyze. Most of the time, the underside is in favor.
First of all, if there is a large score difference, the starting players are replaced in large numbers and garbage players who are not bench players are brought in for garbage time.
Compared to the starters, their skill level is noticeably lacking, their field goal percentage is low, and they don’t score much. Not only is it difficult for the Garbage members to attack quickly, but with the game already in limbo, they aren’t overly concerned with scoring.
Also, when the score difference is tight, every attacking opportunity is very precious, so most of the time, the perfect scoring route is created and the entire shot clock is used up.
Also, the referee’s call for fouls becomes more cautious as the game progresses and the match becomes more intense. In most cases, a foul call is not made in cases of physical fights or when the outcome is uncertain.
The 4th quarter is when the referee has the least involvement in the game, which means fewer free throws or offensive opportunities, and the defense becomes tighter, giving the under the advantage.
But there’s another trend: if the team behind the lead makes a fierce pursuit, the likelihood of an over is higher.
First of all, if the chasing team has a close score difference and is on the verge of a comeback, they are likely to try to turn the game around by focusing on 3-point shots and attacking quickly.
If this strategy is successful, there is a high probability that the game will end in a multi-scoring pattern as the team will use the ‘foul play’ (a play where the team quickly fouls the opponent to give them a free throw when time is running out and takes possession of the ball) to create more possessions.
Therefore, in the 4th quarter, you should carefully consider the above situations and place an over/under bet.
How to Pick a Basketball Over/Under Betting Point
In the case of over/under bets, the difference between the two is often just 1 or 2 points. In extreme cases, a difference of 0.5 points (or 0.5 points) can determine the outcome. Therefore, carefully selecting the benchmark and placing your bet can increase your odds of winning.
Of course, if you change the reference point, the odds will decrease as the winning rate increases, but to increase the winning rate even a little more, you need to use a ‘low risk, low return’ strategy.
Be sure to use it as it allows for much more advantageous betting with a difference in odds of 0.05 to 0.1.
