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A-Match Analysis – How to Approach?
UEFA Euro 2024, which announced the revival of Spain’s invincible armada, the Copa America, where Argentina became the first South American country to win three consecutive major tournaments, the AFC Asian Cup, the African Cup of Nations, and even the North and Central American World Cup, the world’s biggest festival and the one that is only two years away, these major national team matches hosted by FIFA provide soccer fans with unforgettable moments.
In particular, the A-match is a sporting event that attracts the attention of those who are not usually interested in soccer, as it is a match where the elite national teams of each country compete with their pride on the line. As it is a single match , it is more difficult to predict and analyze, and is filled with thrilling and dramatic developments , making it an even more exciting bet.
However, because it is treated as a kind of sporting event, many sports bettors tend to predict the game based on emotions and confirmation bias rather than engaging in accurate analysis or rational judgment when betting on A-match games .
Of course, such choices may be better choices for embracing sports as sports and enjoying an exciting betting life, but in order to make a profit through sports betting, it is right to approach various game elements with a more objective perspective by analyzing the game a little more .
In fact, when the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) created the Nations League to promote friendly matches, the number of national team matches that had to be played increased significantly in addition to league and cup matches. However, this actually resulted in players exhausting a lot of their physical strength and increasing the risk of injury. However, A-match matches are no longer just for fun, but have become a more attractive gaming option for sports bettors.
In this situation, let’s find out what data should be used to develop a betting strategy, and what principles and know-how are needed for successful A-match betting.
Basic Elements of Match Analysis
First of all, when analyzing an A-match, there are various elements and methods to understand the overall match information.
Even putting aside detailed in-depth elements such as formations and tactics, it is important to understand basic information about the teams you will be competing against, such as home/away schedules and recent records, just like in the league.
In particular, it is good to know the information that will be introduced from now on because it has a great impact on dividends.
Understanding the strengths of both teams (rankings, recent records, injuries)
When analyzing league matches, the easiest way is to look at the league rankings table. However, for international matches, this isn’t always easy to grasp. In such cases, the FIFA rankings above are a useful tool.
The FIFA rankings score is given and ranked based on how well the national team performed in major A-match competitions. The rankings and scores are updated daily, and you can also briefly check recent records to see which teams were played in which competitions and what results were recorded .
Due to the nature of A-matches, which require teams to move across countries and even continents during the season, the gap between matches is very long, so it is important to quickly understand the strength of teams through soccer data-providing websites and platforms similar to the above .
Also, checking the injury list of each team is a very important process in determining the team’s strength.
Especially when certain players occupy a significant role on a team, it’s crucial to understand their availability for matches . (Examples: Key overseas players on the South Korean national football team: Son Heung-min (Tottenham Hotspur), Lee Kang-in (Paris Saint-Germain), Kim Min-jae (Bayern Munich), etc.)
In most sports, including soccer, one of the things that greatly affects the odds flow is whether or not key players are out due to injuries , so it is a good idea to be aware of this before placing a bet.
After selecting the list of key players for the relevant A-match, you can check whether the player is included in the list of injured players through the injury table of the league he belongs to [ Transfer Market – Select League – Players – Injured Players] .
While it’s convenient to get injury news from sports news, updates are slow in Korea, and it’s also difficult to keep up with news overseas, so we recommend using a soccer-specialized platform like the one above .
Understanding the importance of the game
Understanding the importance of an A-match, whether it is an evaluation match (friendly match), a preliminary match, or a final match, is also an essential basis for predicting the direction of the match.
In any competition, when it enters the preliminary or main round, both teams go all out, but in matches where there is not much motivation based on wins or losses, such as evaluation matches held while the league is in progress, there are many cases where both teams do not go all out to avoid injuries .
Of course, it may be different if it is a friendly match between a weak team with no backing and a strong team, but even in such cases, the team with the upper hand often forms a lineup with sub-players to prevent injuries to the main players, manage physical strength, and evaluate players, so the nature and importance of the match can be said to be very important in predicting the game’s outcome.
Home/Away
In any sport, home/away play is important, but in A-matches, it is one of the factors that has a great influence on calculating odds, especially because the players often have to take long-distance intercontinental flights that increase fatigue .
In the case of Europe, which has major leagues and countries with close distances, the home advantage effect is significant, but in the case of countries in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Oceania, which are all in the same Asian category but have very different environments , this effect must be taken into consideration when approaching the game.
Information about stadiums and weather is often provided by betting platforms, so it’s a good idea to check it out.
In-depth A-match analysis
Due to the increase in A-matches, such as the Nations League, more match data between strong and weak teams has been accumulated, making more detailed and in-depth analysis possible than before .
If the basic analysis information discussed above can be easily used to read the dividend flow, the in-depth elements explained from now on will serve as a good basis for judgment to help determine whether or not there is merit to betting on the game in question .
Tactical Analysis (Formation/Playing Style)
In the case of the league, there is a lot of data and there are significant tactical changes and battles, such as tactics tailored to the opposing team , so if you do not continuously follow the matches of the league or teams, it can become very difficult to predict the matches.
However, in national team matches, including A-matches, the goal is to win in a short, all-out battle, and the time to build chemistry between players in advance is very short, so once tactics are decided, they are often pushed forward without major changes.
Therefore, we need to extract data from the last 5 games of both teams to understand the team’s tendencies such as formation, possession, attacking opportunities, number of passes, etc., and determine which formation and tactical tendencies the team is strong against (weak) .
For example, if Team A has a high number of tackles and fouls, while Team B has a high win rate despite low possession, this suggests Team A excels at pressing from the front, while Team B specializes in counterattacking . Through this analysis, you can conclude that Team A will have the upper hand in the first half, while Team B, with its less stamina drain, will have the upper hand in the second half . By selecting appropriate betting options, you can increase your bet’s success rate.
Analysis of individual player abilities
No matter how flawless a tactic is, it becomes meaningless if there are no players who can properly execute the tactic.
There are players who are somewhat ambiguous at their clubs but become valuable players when they play in international matches (ex. Guillermo Ochoa, former goalkeeper of the Mexican national football team). There are also players who perform well at their clubs but show a particularly weak performance in big international matches (ex. Lautaro Martinez (Inter, 27), striker of the Argentina national football team).
Therefore, rather than focusing too much on big-name players, a more efficient way to analyze A matches is to select key players who are performing well in A matches and analyze their form and stats (scoring ability/pass success rate) .
Team atmosphere (motivation/discipline)
In an A-match, especially an important tournament match, the most important thing that has an impact is not only tactics and player skills, but also the team atmosphere .
When the teams that were supposed to fall are eliminated and only the relatively strong teams remain, ‘which team has stronger team cohesion and motivation’ will have a greater impact on the outcome of the game than ‘which team has better power’ .
For example, in the ‘2022 Qatar World Cup’, which was likely to be the last dance stage for players who have left the biggest footprints in modern football, such as Messi, Ronaldo, and Modric, the Argentina national football team, which had been lacking a major national trophy, woke up and lifted the World Cup trophy that they had been dreaming of, for Messi.
At the time, Brazil, which many experts had chosen as a favorite to win, was overwhelmingly powerful. However, due to the team’s weakened atmosphere caused by a series of tournament disasters, they showed stiff play whenever they faced a strong team, and eventually lost to Croatia and were relegated to the quarterfinals. Argentina, on the other hand, showed strong teamwork with all of their teammates working together for Messi , and eventually won all matches except the first match.
At the time, Portugal, with its powerful squad including Bruno Fernandes and Joao Cancelo, also had enough power to aim for the trophy, but Messi’s rival and the star of the last dance, Ronaldo, displayed excessive competitive spirit and selfishness during the tournament, which damaged the team atmosphere, and they ended up being tripped up by Morocco.
Of course, Messi and Ronaldo are expected to play again in the 2026 North and Central American World Cup, but the important thing is that this team atmosphere has a huge impact on the results of national team matches, and it is very useful to understand it through training scenes and news reports.
Avoid low dividends?
In conclusion, we can see that for more successful soccer match analysis and betting, it is necessary to pay attention to a lot of data, such as the environment, tactics, players, and atmosphere .
As a result, no matter how strong a team is, if it misses just one of the above conditions, it can be tripped up by a team several levels below it.
- Euro 2024 Group E: Romania vs. Ukraine 3-0 – Ukraine’s tactical defeat despite dominating possession.
- 2018 Russia World Cup Group F Korea v Germany 2:0 – Defeat amidst disarray due to Ozil
- 2022 Qatar World Cup Quarterfinals: Morocco v Portugal 1-0 – Morocco’s home victory was a testament to its climate.
- 2023 International Friendly Match Japan v Germany 4-1 – A landslide victory thanks to the tactical and organizational skills of coach Moriyasu, who has been in charge for over seven years.
In fact, even without listing them all, it can be explained with the single phrase, ‘There are no absolutes in sports,’ but the author wants to say that these upsets are not something that happens solely through luck or determination .
Of course, even considering all the above factors, predicting these matches is not easy. However, Argentina, who had a cinematic narrative at the Qatar World Cup, suffered their only defeat at the hands of Saudi Arabia. The team spirit, which had been the driving force behind their victory, was instantly destroyed by a first goal.
Therefore, in A-matches, especially in these all-out tournaments, you should absolutely avoid betting on over-the-top odds (aka “shit odds”). Not only is the expected return low, but if you miss, you’re likely to suffer huge losses .
Rather, it is recommended to bet on a team that is likely to cause an upset by adjusting the odds or adjusting the amount through the in-depth analysis know-how of the A-match explained above, and the most successful A-match betting strategy would be to create a betting plan that utilizes various options such as win/draw/loss , under/over , and handicap betting .
