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The Basics of Soccer Draw Betting
What is a draw bet?
In soccer, which is a sport that does not typically result in many scores like basketball or baseball, draws are very common.
Collisions between players occur frequently, and since it is an outdoor sport, physical exhaustion is high, so there is always a risk of injury. Therefore, in leagues with many matches scheduled, matches can end in a draw without overtime for the sake of player protection and scheduling convenience.
That’s why, in soccer, in predicting the winner, you can bet on a draw in addition to a win or loss as the main bet, and today, I’m going to post about how to increase the success rate of predicting a draw.
Draw bet odds
The odds for soccer win-draw-loss betting are naturally determined based on the probability of how the match will end.
Likewise, the draw odds are also influenced by various variables that determine the outcome of the match, such as team strength, recent game flow, and injuries, and non-game factors such as the stadium and weather also play an important role.
However, some bettors believe that the average probability of a draw will converge to 33% because the odds are determined based on probability, but this is a very wrong calculation both statistically and from a common sense perspective.
The photo above is a table showing the match results in percentages for the five EPL seasons from the 2019-20 season to the 2023-24 season, and numerically shows the ratio of home team wins, away team wins, and draws for all matches.
As you can see, the draw rate over 38 matches (38R) is in the low to mid 20% range, less than 30%. This is also lower than the win/loss ratio in other leagues, such as Spain’s La Liga, Germany’s Bundesliga, and Italy’s Serie A.
This is because soccer is a sport that is greatly influenced by home advantage , and especially in modern soccer, the gap in power between top and bottom teams has widened significantly due to differences in financial power, so there are many one-sided matches rather than even matches .
Therefore, unless the difference in power is significant and the odds are not that different, the odds for a draw are usually the highest, forming a payout of approximately 3 times.
Pros and Cons of Draw Betting
It is difficult to find sports where draw betting is possible in a win-draw-lose game, except for soccer and ice hockey. However, since soccer is one of the most popular sports in the sports betting market, soccer draw betting can be seen as one of the games with a high rate of selection by bettors.
As you can see from the data above, draws in soccer matches are rare compared to other match outcomes, so betting on wins, draws, and losses has its own unique characteristics and distinct advantages and disadvantages compared to simply predicting a win or a loss.
Draw Betting Advantages
1. High dividend yield
As explained above, the probability of a draw in soccer is lower than the average probability of a win, so it has a low probability and therefore shows a high odds .
Of course, if it’s a match between the league’s top team and a team fighting for relegation, the odds for the lower-ranked team to win are higher, but if the teams are similar in strength, the odds for a draw are higher, so this can be used strategically .
The picture above is the win-draw-loss odds for the match between Fulham and West Ham United in the 4th round of the 2024-25 English Premier League season. This match is between two teams that finished in the middle of the table last season, 9th (West Ham) and 13th (Fulham). Although Fulham finished lower in the rankings last season, they had an advantage in head-to-head records, so this match was selected as the most evenly matched match among the EPL 4th round matches being held this time.
As you can see, Fulham’s win is given odds of 2.55, and West Ham’s win is given odds of 2.94, showing balanced odds of less than 3, but in the case of a draw, it is given odds of 3.39 , showing the highest odds among win/draw/loss .
The more equal the strength of the two teams, the more attractive the draw bet becomes. Therefore, if you carefully analyze the flow, tactics, and motivation of the teams beforehand and place a draw bet , you can expect greater profits .
2. Simplification of match analysis
In soccer betting, placing a bet to predict the outcome of a match requires considerable prior analysis to increase the odds of success.
Just considering the factors such as the expected lineup, recent match flow, injuries, both teams’ records and matchups, and whether the game is home or away, there is a lot of data that requires a lot of time to understand. Even if you understand it perfectly, if the players’ condition is not good that day, the game is likely not to go as desired.
Especially when the season has just started and the team’s strength or tone has changed due to a transfer or manager change, there are few samples to use and it is difficult to use the data from before, so in the case of a match that appears to be even at first glance, adopting a draw betting strategy can be a choice that reduces complexity and saves the effort of identifying various variables .
Draw betting disadvantages
1. Low hit probability
The advantage of high dividends naturally comes at the cost of a lower probability of success in making predictions .
In general, a soccer league adopts a rule that a win earns 3 points, a draw earns 1 point, and a loss earns 0 points. However, in the beginning of the season, even if a weaker team plays against a stronger team, they both play to win, so it can be said that no team aims for a draw from the beginning .
Also, because of the nature of soccer, which is greatly influenced by home/away matches, it is difficult to easily judge that a draw will occur because even if a match is between teams of similar rankings, there is no way to achieve a perfect level of power .
That’s why, unless it’s the latter half of the season when the standings have stabilized, any team will tend to want to see a draw in the game, and the chances of a draw are bound to be low.
2. Existence of alternative betting options
Ultimately, it is difficult to expect a stable profit by skipping the analysis process and betting on draws due to the low frequency, and it is also not possible to bet only on matches between teams with similar strengths, which have a high probability of a draw, so many people choose other betting options instead of betting on draws.
For example, even in a match between teams with a large difference in strength, there are handicap betting and double chance betting that give an advantage to make up for the difference in strength between the two teams .
Double chance betting is, simply put, a bet where you choose two out of three options: win/draw/loss .
This is a betting option that can be selected to eliminate the risk of loss due to a draw when trying to bet on a specific team’s victory. Although it may not seem to have merit due to the low odds, it is a betting option that can significantly increase the winning rate if you thoroughly analyze the match and its strength .
The odds are about 3 times higher, and the draw rate in the top 5 leagues is 20% to 25%. This means that rather than a draw bet with a lower probability of winning compared to the odds, a double chance bet that reflects the player’s analysis and guarantees a winning rate may be better.
Draw Betting Strategy
Based on the pros and cons mentioned above , we can see that soccer draw betting is ultimately a high-risk, high-return game.
What this means is that betting on a soccer draw requires a much more thorough betting strategy than a regular win/lose bet .
Bet on the aggressive team
If you list the matches throughout the season, there are more games that ended in a draw than a draw, but surprisingly, the games with the highest score ratio are the 1-1 draws .
In the case of a win/loss, it can be distributed in various score patterns such as 1:0, 0:1, 2:1, 3:0, etc., but in the case of a draw, it can be seen as the most common score result statistically because 0:0, 1:1, and more than 4 goals must be scored in one game.
What is noteworthy here is that there were more 1:1 matches than 0:0 matches, which means that when teams that play aggressively to score at least one goal play against teams that play defensively, the score is more often a draw .
Even in the English Premier League and German Bundesliga, the above statistics show that there are more 2:2 score matches than 0:0 score matches.
A smart player will be able to figure out from the above statistics that under betting at a 2.5 point is not a bad choice if a draw is expected.
Find out the match schedule and standings
It is not a bad draw betting strategy to aim for a timing when the team’s game management cannot but be passive .
The passive game management mentioned here does not mean the defensive tactics mentioned above , but rather the possibility of a draw due to physical problems when the match schedule is tight due to an A-match or tournament.
Especially in the case of strong teams that frequently participate in tournaments, in order to prevent injuries caused by a tight schedule and the resulting physical strain, they try to score the first goal quickly and then take out their starting players in league matches. In this process, when they meet a team with a relatively easy schedule, they often end up conceding a draw even if there is a difference in strength .
Additionally, as the league nears its end, there is no reason to play fiercely in matches between teams whose rankings have already been decided to some extent, except for teams that are fighting for tournament qualification and relegation, so it is common to play passively to prevent injuries, which often results in draws.
In other words, rather than matches between top or bottom teams, matches between mid-table teams that are unlikely to be too concerned about points in the latter half of the league can be a good option for draw bets.
Check the weather conditions
Because soccer is played even under poor weather conditions, weather can be a factor influencing the outcome of a game.
When it rains or snows, the ball does not circulate as it normally does, so the tempo of the game slows down, scoring decreases, and above all, players are reluctant to come out actively because the field becomes slippery and the risk of injury increases.
Although it is a good environment to aim for a 0-0 draw, the weather doesn’t often have a significant impact on the game, and the process of recovering from a goal conceded is very difficult, so I recommend betting on matches between teams that lack sophisticated attackers or are of low level.
Let’s adjust the amount
As we have emphasized many times, draw betting is a high risk, high return betting option.
Assuming you bet on all matches in a season of a specific professional league, the hit rate is in the low to mid 20% range. This means that if you bet on a soccer draw like you would on a win/loss bet, you could suffer a large loss after a losing streak.
Since I haven’t had much success with draw betting, I recommend using other betting options such as handicap betting or under/over betting .
However, if you still want to try draw betting, betting only half the amount you would bet in a regular win/lose game will reduce your expected profit, but it is a way to manage your seed money (capital) and enjoy soccer draws stress-free.
