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Classification of game progress method
Home and Away
In team sports, especially those where each team is based in a specific region and competes in a league format, there is a concept called home and away.
A game played at a stadium located in a team’s home territory is called a home game, and an away game played at another team’s home territory is called an away game.
For example, in the KBO (Korean Professional Baseball), from the Lotte Giants’ perspective, games played at Sajik Stadium in Busan are considered home games, while games played at the home stadiums of other teams are considered away games.
Leagues that use this home-and-away format, regardless of the sport, tend to have one absolute tendency: the home team has a significant advantage.
Since all teams play half of their assigned matches at home each season, they play in a much more familiar environment, and from the away team’s perspective, the fatigue that builds up while traveling to the stadium and the pressure of the home team’s atmosphere can sometimes prevent them from performing to their usual level.
This applies to all home-and-away sports, including soccer, baseball, and basketball, and in countries as large as the United States, the home-field advantage is even more pronounced due to the country’s large land area.
That’s why home/away is the most important factor to consider when betting on sports.
Neutral stadium games
The neutral stadium match, which we will discuss today, is a match format that is the exact opposite of the home-and-away format described above.
As the name suggests, a neutral stadium match is a match played at a third neutral stadium other than the stadiums of the two teams competing.
For commercial reasons, most sports leagues operate on a home/and-away basis, so neutral stadium games are not normally played. However, neutral stadiums are often used in special circumstances or for important competitions.
International competitions, tournament finals, and All-Star games are just a few examples of games being played at neutral venues.
Neutral stadium games have the advantage of ensuring fairness, but in the case of leagues that operate based on their home grounds,
The main customers who watch the game, cheer, and spend (purchasing tickets and souvenirs) are often local fans.
For the sake of popularity and profitability, leagues are often played on a home-and-away basis.
Even excluding special events like the All-Star Game, international competitions like the World Cup and the Olympics, and tournaments like the Champions League final, are considered the biggest main events in the betting market, so it’s important to be familiar with analysis methods for neutral stadium matches.
Today, we’ll take a look at some of the factors to consider when betting on games played at neutral venues for each sport.
Neutral Match Analysis: For Soccer
Soccer is a sport with the highest recognition and correspondingly large number of leagues in the world, so it can be said that it is a sport in which relatively many neutral matches are played.
Because climate conditions vary across continents and regions, and league and cup competitions start at different times, neutral matches are readily available in the betting markets at any time.
Of course, the matches with the most selections from the bettors are the World Cup, UEFA Cup, and League Cup.
Understanding player condition
Compared to other sports, soccer is definitely a sport that requires a lot of physical effort and has a high risk of injury.
The fact that league matches are usually played once a week is a testament to this fact.
But considering the schedule of tournaments that are the main events in the betting market, even this one-week break feels short for clubs who have to prepare for both the league and the tournament.
For example, a club in the English Premier League must prepare for the EFL Cup (Carabao Cup), FA Cup, and European competitions (Champions/Europa/Europa Conference) in addition to the league competition.
Club tournaments are played at neutral stadiums only for the finals, but national team competitions (Nations League, Copa America, etc.) where players are drafted by clubs are played at neutral stadiums because the physical burden on players is too great to play all matches at home and away.
Therefore, when betting on a soccer match played at a neutral venue, it is essential to analyze how tired both teams are from previous matches and whether they have had sufficient time to recover.
No matter how fair a neutral stadium match may be, a team’s performance ultimately depends on the players’ condition, so it’s important to understand factors such as whether ace players are called up, the total distance traveled including previous matches, and the injury list.
Stadium environment
Another variable that neutral stadiums have is the playing conditions, such as weather and grass conditions.
In the league, even if it is not a home game, clubs roughly understand the weather and stadium conditions of the opposing team’s home region through previous matches and tailor their operations accordingly.
However, in neutral venues, where countries or continents are different, both teams are competing in unfamiliar environments, which can lead to changes in performance.
Of course, these days, each club hires sports science experts to understand all the variables of these neutral stadiums, but this doesn’t necessarily lead to a significant change in tactics, so analyzing the stadium environment can be an important part of your betting strategy.
The way players play depending on the temperature, the changes in the turf depending on the humidity, these variables are advanced information that can be used to your advantage when betting, in addition to information that is visible on the surface, such as the lineup.
For example:
- When the temperature is low, players’ bodies become stiff and it is difficult to attempt active attacks, so in such cases, a team with a strong defense has the advantage.
- When the temperature is high, the team that has the advantage of pressure is at a disadvantage because the physical exhaustion is great, and the team that has the advantage of stamina or build-up ability is at an advantage.
- Low humidity makes the ground rough, causing the ball to react quickly and erratically. Therefore, teams that frequently use long passes rather than short passes and are adept at quick-break tactics are more likely to perform well.
- Conversely, in humid weather, ball control remains challenging, but the moisture and weight of the ball make it difficult to play at a fast pace. In such situations, teams that maintain a high possession rate through organized and stable operations have the advantage.
| Impact on the game | |
| high temperatures | High stamina consumption → Team with higher energy level and better decompression ability has an advantage |
| low temperatures | High risk of injury → Teams with passive, organized play and good defense have an advantage |
| high humidity | The grass is slippery → the ball slows down and spins too much, making it difficult to handle. |
| low humidity | The grass gets rougher → the ball gets faster and bounces better (bounces better) |
Neutral Game Analysis: The Case of Baseball
Unlike soccer, baseball has few active leagues and not many tournaments, making it very difficult to see national tournaments, i.e. games played at neutral stadiums.
First of all, from an infrastructure perspective, there are not many countries with proper baseball stadiums, and as I just mentioned, there are not many countries participating in international competitions, so we are seeing countries like Korea, the US, Japan, Taiwan, and Central and South America taking turns hosting the games.
Excluding the Asian Games or the Olympics, it is difficult to find baseball games played at neutral stadiums, and even then, the Asian Games are always embroiled in the issue of the American continent not participating and the Olympics always being excluded, so it is becoming increasingly difficult to find baseball games that are not home and away.
In the past, the KBO held neutral games at Jamsil Stadium, which has a seating capacity of over 20,000, starting with Game 5 of the Korean Series due to the number of spectators, but this was abolished in 2016 as the infrastructure of each home stadium improved and issues of regional discrimination arose.
However, the reason I am mentioning baseball in this post is because of the World Tour Series held by MLB (Major League Baseball).
Because World Tour Series games are considered regular season games rather than friendly matches, they are actually very important games, and that’s why last year’s season opener between the LA Dodgers and San Diego Padres in Seoul, South Korea, was quite a historic match.
One season later, the opening game between the LA Dodgers, featuring Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Sasaki, and the Chicago Cubs, featuring Imanaga and Suzuki, took place at the Tokyo Dome in Japan, bringing great joy to Japanese baseball fans.
The Tokyo Series match between the Dodgers and Cubs was the most prominent main event game in the betting market, as it was played before other teams’ opening games on home soil.
So, let’s take a look at what information you should consider when analyzing a neutral baseball game.
