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Are the odds different for the player and the banker?
Did you know that the odds for Player and Banker, the two main players in the baccarat game, are different ?
The odds of a 50/50 player/banker split, though many consider it to be, are actually slightly higher in favor of the banker, at 49% vs. 51%. Of course, when a human player, not a robot, is less aware of this, they often assume the odds are 50/50.
Today, we’ll look at the differences in odds between Player and Banker, as well as the odds of other side bets in baccarat, and determine whether or not a bet is worth making.
Baccarat Game Betting Option Odds
Player/Banker odds
The difference in odds between the Player and Banker comes from the conditions under which they receive a third card. [Reference Link: Situations Under Which Additional Cards Are Receiving in Baccarat]
The table above shows whether the player draws a third card or not depending on the banker’s total.
Except when the Player’s total is 8 or 9, the Banker always draws a third card if he is losing. For example, let’s say the Player’s two totals are 5 and the Banker’s two totals are 5.
The player must draw a third card, while the banker draws only if their hand is lower than the player’s or if there’s a tie. Of course, if the player’s additional card is an ACE (1) through 4, which is a higher number than the banker’s, the player has the advantage.
However, if we calculate the probability, the probability that the player’s additional card will be 1 to 4 in the above situation is 4/13. [ A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 ,J,Q,K]
In the meantime, excluding the case where J, Q, or K come out, the player has a 4/10, or 40%, chance of winning. If a higher number comes out than that 40% chance, the banker also draws a card, making it impossible to determine the winner.
That is, if the player’s total is lower than 5, the banker wins unconditionally, and if the player’s total is higher than the banker’s, the banker draws one more card to start the 50:50 probability game again.
Therefore, in most winning situations, the banker has a higher winning rate because he finishes without drawing another card.
If you calculate the actual odds, the player’s winning rate is about 49% and the banker’s winning rate is about 51%.
Tie probability
Baccarat itself is a gamble, but what are the odds of a tie, which is considered a gamble within a gamble?
First, when a tie comes out, you need to consider the natural tie that comes out after drawing two cards and the tie that comes out after looking at the third card.
For a natural tie to occur, the player’s and banker’s first two cards must each total between 6 and 9. The possible outcomes are 0:0 to 9:9.
In other words, if you calculate the total natural tie probability (probability of a 6:6~9:9 tie / total number of cases), it becomes 1/25 or 4%.
So what are the chances of getting a tie when the third card is drawn?
First, we need to exclude all cases where the result is determined by the second card, and then we need to know the total number of cases remaining and the probability of a tie later, right?
The total number of cases ending in natural is n(8,9):n(0~9), so there are 20. Conversely, the probability of the banker getting a natural is 16, since it is n(8,9):n(0~7), excluding duplicates.
Also, if it is not natural, you need to exclude 40 by adding 4 more: (7,7), (7,6), (6,7), (6,6).
To calculate the probability of a tie at this point, we need to consider three cards with a value of 0. This is because, although they are 0-9, the probability of 0 is not simply 1/10.
Since the probability is 3/13, if it is not an existing tie, we need to exclude 23.2323%^2×2 = approximately 10.8% of 3/13×3/13.
In that case, if we subtract the probability of ending on the second card from the total number of cases (100), the total number of cases is 60, and the probability of a tie is 10, or 1/6 -10.8% = approximately 5.8%.
If we add this to the probability of a natural tie, we can calculate that there is a 9.8% chance of a tie .
Probability of a pair
The probability of a pair coming out can be determined with relatively simple calculations.
First of all, the number of cases in which ‘A~K’ can appear out of a total of 13 cards is 13X13=169.
In other words, the probability of getting a baccarat pair is 1/13, or about 7.7%.
Efficiency compared to the odds of baccarat payouts
Naturally, baccarat also offers high payouts for low odds. So, when comparing the odds and odds of each of the above betting options in baccarat, which bet offers the most efficiency?
Baccarat Betting Options Payouts
- Player/Banker: 2.0x/1.95x
- Thai: 8x
- Pair: 11x
Betting efficiency compared to player/banker odds
As mentioned above, the odds of the Flair are 49% and the Banker’s are 51%, and since the payout is 2.00:1.95, it’s easy to think that the actual house take is 0.05/2, or 0.025.
However, in the case of the Banker, the house edge increases further because of the Banker Six (where the Banker only pays half the winnings if he wins with a 6).
The odds are higher for the Banker, but the actual payout percentages for betting on the Player and Banker are almost the same, and the house edge for betting on this option alone is around 1.01%.
This calculation shows that the battery side may be at a disadvantage by 1.01% .
Betting efficiency vs. odds of tie
As we saw above, the probability of a tie is 9.8%. Since the probability of a tie occurring 9.8 times out of 100, it’s reasonable to offer a payout of 9.8. However, the actual payout for a tie is 8, which is statistically unfavorable.
If we convert this into a number, the battery side could be at a disadvantage by as much as 14.4%.
Betting efficiency compared to the odds of a pair
As we saw above, the probability of a pair is 13%. Since the probability of a pair appearing 13 times out of 100, it’s reasonable to offer a payout of 13. However, the actual payout for a pair is 11, which is statistically unfavorable.
If we convert this into a number, the battery side could be at a disadvantage by as much as 15.3%.
Conclusion on the best odds of Baccarat betting
In conclusion, betting on low-probability ties and pairs based solely on high odds will increase your loss rate. Therefore, the most efficient way to play baccarat is to place large bets in short periods of time, focusing on Player/Banker bets.
Since the game itself is one in which the house (business) side is in favor, if it accumulates over a long period of time, even a small house edge of 1.01% will increase.
Remember! Baccarat is short and sweet! Focus on player and banker bets!
Want to make your baccarat game a little more efficient?
We all know that the probability of getting heads or tails when flipping a coin is 50%, right? Since coin flips are independent probabilities, the probability of getting heads or tails is 50% no matter when you flip a coin.
So what about baccarat? Since baccarat also has independent odds, the probability of the player winning doesn’t increase just because the banker is on the winning side.
However, statistically speaking, the player wins 49 times out of 100, and the banker wins 51 times. Conversely, even in a game of independent probability, which is unaffected by any influence, the overall odds are relatively even.
When a coin comes up heads 9 times in a row, the probability of it coming up heads on the 10th time is an independent probability of 50%, but the probability of it coming up heads 10 times in a row is 1/1024, or less than 0.1%.
Likewise, when you look at a baccarat shoe, you’ve probably never seen a shoe that starts with the Banker and ends with only the Banker, or a shoe that starts with the Player and ends with the Player.
Therefore, using conditional probability, it can be statistically a good bet to try to place an opposite bet when one side is in the lead.
Let’s increase the seed money to your advantage?
As with any casino game, increasing your seed money can help you overcome the house edge and create a more favorable bet for the player. That’s if you can increase it for free.
For example, there are deposit bonuses that can be received when playing online baccarat. If you receive an additional seed of 10%, you can get an average of (original seed amount x 110%) x (baccarat payout rate excluding house edge 98.9%) = 108.8%.
At this time, if the condition for receiving bonus money is 500% rolling, you can enjoy baccarat with odds equal to the house at 110% x 98.9^5.
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